Alstom Shares Plunge as French Train Maker Cuts Outlook Again Over German Coradia Max Problems

Shares of French train maker Alstom plunged as much as 30% in early Paris trading on Monday after the company slashed its full-year outlook for the second time in 2026, blaming execution problems on major projects in Germany that hit half-year profitability and cash flow, Reuters reported.

The warning came less than seven months after Alstom abandoned a three-year free cash flow target and lowered its margin outlook. Investing.com said the stock was down more than 28% in early trading.

Guidance slashed again

Alstom now expects an adjusted EBIT margin of around 1% for the 2026/27 financial year, down from its earlier forecast of about 6.5%. It also expects free cash flow to be an outflow of €1.5 billion, after previously guiding for a positive figure.

Organic sales growth is now seen in the low- to mid-single digits, compared with about 5% before, while the annual production target was lowered to around 4,000 rail cars from 4,400 to 4,500. The company kept its book-to-bill guidance above 1, according to Investing.com.

For the first half, sales rose 3% to €9.3 billion, with organic growth of 2%, and orders reached €11 billion against €10.5 billion a year earlier. However, the adjusted EBIT margin swung to around minus 4% from 6.4% a year before. Free cash flow was negative €1.25 billion, and net debt rose to €1.1 billion at September 30 from €0.4 billion at the end of March.

Coradia Max problems in Germany

The setback centres on the Coradia Max programme, a series of regional trains ordered by German states. According to Reuters, technical issues and additional testing extended the certification timeline and delayed deliveries. Investing.com reported that car production fell 8% to 1,860 units in the half, after manufacturing was paused in the first quarter to fix technical issues.

Chief Executive Martin Sion, appointed in April 2026, said the revised figures were aimed at helping to “normalise the Group’s performance from next fiscal year.”

Citi estimated the negative cash flow forecast was equivalent to about 20% of Alstom’s market value. In a note before the market opened, the bank said “we’d expect a significant negative reaction to the shares,” citing the size of the cash warning and limited detail on deleveraging. Reuters said the stock has lost 54% of its value so far in 2026, including Monday’s fall.

Alstom’s slide weighed on European equities, with the STOXX 600 index down 0.3% at 645.04 points in early trade, Reuters reported via Global Banking & Finance Review.

What’s next

Alstom said it plans to cut debt by around €2 billion. The company will hold a Capital Markets Day in the second quarter of 2027, according to Investing.com.

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