Brent Crude Rises as Hormuz Talks Stall and US Diesel Policy Looms

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 30, 2026 – Brent crude oil prices climbed to $105 per barrel, up from $104 last week, as two simultaneous risks rattled energy markets: stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and potential US restrictions on diesel exports.

The Middle East conflict remains unresolved, with Iran’s latest proposal for a phased reopening of Hormuz rejected by Washington over sequencing. Tehran demanded sanctions relief and asset releases before reopening the strait, while the US insisted goodwill must be demonstrated first. This deadlock mirrors the breakdown of a June memorandum, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged stalemate. With Hormuz handling a significant share of global crude flows, uncertainty over its reopening continues to underpin oil prices.

Brent Crude Rises

At the same time, the White House is weighing a formal ban on US diesel exports to contain domestic fuel costs. The mere discussion has already pushed the US diesel crack spread down more than 15% in a week, from $113 to $96 per barrel. Analysts warn that a ban would tighten diesel supply in Europe and Latin America, where inventories are already low, while eventually raising US gasoline and jet fuel prices as refiners reduce throughput.

According to Rystad Energy’s Claudio Galimberti, the diesel export ban debate is “the most consequential near-term policy question for energy markets.” The short-term effect would be lower US pump prices, but the longer-term tension lies in Washington’s dual agenda: promoting energy dominance through long-term export contracts while considering temporary restrictions on refined products.

Together, the stalled Hormuz talks and looming US diesel policy have created a volatile backdrop, keeping Brent crude elevated and reinforcing the risk of further price spikes if either situation escalates.

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