OPEC+ Output Nears Pre-Iran War Levels Despite Hormuz Disruption

Oil output from the OPEC+ group climbed close to levels seen before the Iran war in October, led by a sharp rise in Saudi Arabian production despite continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, an OPEC monthly report released on Wednesday (Nov 11) showed, Al Jazeera and Reuters reported.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with allies including Russia, pumped 41.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up about 2.04 million bpd from September. That is about 97 percent of the 42.72 million bpd the group produced in February, according to Reuters.

Saudi output and export workarounds

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, pumped 10.563 million bpd of crude in October, up by more than two million bpd from September, the report said. That is its highest since late February, when it produced 10.882 million bpd as the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran.

The figures, based on secondary sources, indicate that Gulf producers are recovering exports through workarounds such as ship-to-ship transfers. The report said Saudi exports had stabilised even as Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked the kingdom’s East-West Pipeline, a route that carries crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu without passing through Hormuz.

Russian output rose after US President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian energy and announced an “energy ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia in mid-October, Al Jazeera reported.

The report also noted that Japan’s crude imports fell sharply in September amid renewed disruption to trade flows, with the United Arab Emirates regaining top-supplier status at a 49 percent share, followed by the US at 28 percent and Saudi Arabia at 14 percent.

Prices and household costs

Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera that higher Saudi production could ease some of the inflationary pressure on American consumers, but that it would not automatically mean lower pump prices.

US petrol prices fell below US$4 a gallon this week for the first time in months, Al Jazeera reported. Annual personal consumption expenditures inflation hit a three-year high of 4.1 percent in May as the conflict cut off roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies moving through Hormuz.

On Wednesday, Brent crude rose 1.1 percent to US$92.53 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate gained 0.8 percent to US$86.71, recovering from two-month lows on concern over continued attacks on shipping in the strait, Reuters reported. Analysts at LSEG said even a diplomatic deal would not restore normal shipments at once, citing mine clearance, insurance costs and shipowners’ safety concerns.

What’s next

OPEC left its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged after cutting them for six straight months. It expects demand to grow by 180,000 bpd in 2026 and by 2.55 million bpd in 2027, to an average of 108.3 million bpd.

The group forecast that Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina will drive growth in energy-related liquids production in 2027, and said it expects the Middle East economy to rebound that year, supported by a resilient non-oil sector and robust domestic demand.

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