OPEC+ Maintains Production Limits as Hormuz Geopolitical Uncertainties Loom

OPEC+ has decided to keep crude oil production steady for December following a 188,000 barrel-per-day increase in September. The decision aligns with market expectations, setting the stage for a critical November 29 ministerial meeting where the cartel will finalize its 2027 production framework.

According to Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, current geopolitical disruptions are masking underlying weaknesses in the global oil balance. “OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027,” Leon noted, highlighting major uncertainties surrounding US-Iran tensions, recovery rates through the Strait of Hormuz, and potential market surpluses if disrupted supply returns rapidly.

OPEC+

Rystad Energy has revised its geopolitical market outlook, shifting from a full recovery expectation to a “fragile pseudo-normalization” by mid-2027. While Gulf crude exports rose to approximately 12 million barrels per day in September and October—up from earlier lows but well below the 18 million pre-war baseline—security conditions continue to deteriorate. Attacks on commercial shipping have intensified as Tehran seeks to maintain strategic leverage, driving very large crude carrier (VLCC) dayrates up to nine times pre-war levels.

Rather than a comprehensive political resolution addressing nuclear programs, sanctions, and regional security, Rystad foresees a tacit accommodation between Washington and Tehran by late Q2 2027. This intermediate state would allow combined Gulf and Yanbu crude exports to recover to roughly 18 million barrels per day by July, albeit within an environment marked by persistent shipping risks and elevated freight premiums.

With OPEC+ weighing how much crude to release into an unstable market, the upcoming November policy session remains the crucial event for determining supply stability entering 2027.

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