Toyota Lifts Profit Forecast 15% to ¥3.9 Trillion

Toyota Motor raised its full-year operating profit forecast by 15% to 3.9 trillion yen on Thursday after earnings for the July–September quarter rose 34% to about 1.1 trillion yen, Bloomberg News reported. It was the carmaker’s first quarterly profit gain in six quarters, and its shares climbed more than 16% in Tokyo, the biggest rise since 1987.

Profit forecast lifted

For the year ending March 2027, Toyota now expects consolidated net profit of 3.57 trillion yen, up from its earlier projection of 3.25 trillion yen, Jiji Press said. CBT News noted that the new figure still implies a 7.2% fall from the previous year. Toyota trimmed its revenue projection to 53.5 trillion yen from 54 trillion yen and cut its annual group vehicle sales target to 10.99 million units from 11.18 million.

Quarterly revenue rose 8.6% to 13.437 trillion yen, while net profit for the three months fell 18.5% to 759.4 billion yen, below an analyst estimate of 779.6 billion yen, according to CBT News. For April to September, Jiji reported sales up 9.5% to 26.96 trillion yen, a sixth straight first-half record, with operating profit up 9.2% to 2.19 trillion yen and net profit up 26.1% to 2.24 trillion yen.

Tariffs and costs

Toyota put the full-year hit from US tariffs at 1.1 trillion yen, according to a BigGo Finance summary of the earnings call. It expects headwinds of 505 billion yen from the Middle East situation and 980 billion yen from material prices, offset by improvement efforts and currency gains. The company now assumes 157 yen to the US dollar, compared with 160 previously. Its North American business posted first-half operating profit of 166.1 billion yen, against a loss a year earlier, and electrified vehicles made up 55.6% of Toyota and Lexus sales.

Chief Financial Officer Yoichi Miyazaki warned against complacency, saying, “We have not yet fully offset the tariff and Middle East impacts.” Bloomberg linked the share rally to strong hybrid demand, investor hopes for tariff relief after the US midterm elections and a larger buyback.

Buyback and robotics

Toyota raised the cap on its share buyback by 300 billion yen to 1.3 trillion yen and set an annual dividend of 100 yen, up from 95 yen, BigGo reported. Bloomberg said the carmaker plans shareholder returns of as much as 14 trillion yen over five years, and that it has set up a dedicated robotics department led by chief production officer Takefumi Shiga.

Tatsuo Yoshida, a senior auto analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that “Toyota has relatively few obvious weaknesses” compared with other Japanese carmakers, though he flagged competition from Chinese automakers as a major challenge.

What’s next

The robotics organisation will become a company-wide unit directly under headquarters from January 1, 2027, according to BigGo. Bloomberg reported that a new Shanghai factory will produce Lexus electric vehicles from late 2027. In the US, CBT News said Toyota will spend US$3.6 billion to expand its San Antonio plant and move Tacoma production from Mexico to the US by 2030.

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