US Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in October, Beating Forecasts

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, faster than economists had expected, as food and energy costs climbed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. The reading follows a 0.6% rise in September.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month, matching the pace of August and September. Surveys cited by Yahoo Finance and TheStreet had forecast a 0.3% headline gain and a 0.2% rise in core prices.

The BLS did not publish 12-month inflation rates for headline or core CPI this time. It said data for October 2025 were not collected because of a lapse in appropriations, so annual changes cannot be calculated where those figures are missing.

Food and energy lead gains

Food prices rose 0.5% in October after holding flat in September, according to the BLS. Grocery prices increased 0.4%, while the cost of eating out climbed 0.5%, with full-service restaurant meals up 0.7%. Beef rose 0.9% and snacks gained 1.0%.

The energy index increased 0.7%, a sharp slowdown from September’s 5.2% jump. Gasoline rose 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis, though it fell 0.7% before adjustment. Electricity prices gained 0.9%, while natural gas fell 0.8%. Over 12 months, unadjusted gasoline prices were up 37.4%, the agency’s table showed.

Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase, the BLS said. Owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% and rent gained 0.2%. Other increases came from recreation, up 0.8%, motor vehicle insurance, up 0.7%, and medical care, up 0.3%. Used car and truck prices fell 1.2%.

Consumer Prices – Rate hike bets firm

Investors read the data as supporting further tightening by the Federal Reserve. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, told TheStreet the report “sets the stage for another rate hike in December.”

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said the monthly gains remained too high for the central bank and that he expects a quarter-point increase in December, according to TheStreet.

Before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London that he would back a 25-basis-point hike in December even if October inflation eased, and that a 50-basis-point move should be considered if core prices rose 0.3% or more, TheStreet reported, citing Reuters. Yahoo Finance said on Monday that traders had priced an 83% chance of a quarter-point hike.

Stocks fell at the open, with the S&P 500 down 0.74% and the Nasdaq off 1.05%, while Treasury yields rose, TheStreet reported.

What’s next

The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for December 8–9, according to Yahoo Finance, which said the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due later this month. The BLS will publish November CPI data on December 10.

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