BNM Holds OPR at 2.75%, Signals Mildly Hawkish Tone

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 4, 2026, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 2.75% during its September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, in line with market expectations. However, the central bank’s latest statement carried a mildly hawkish tone, hinting at greater policy flexibility ahead.

BNM noted that global inflation remains elevated, driven by the lagged pass-through of higher energy costs, while uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict continue to weigh on global growth. Still, the sustained technology upcycle is expected to support the broader global outlook.

OPR

Domestically, BNM guided that Malaysia’s robust year-to-date momentum should deliver growth of “around 5%” in 2026, with resilience expected into 2027. Strong demand for electrical and electronics (E&E), tech-related non-E&E exports, and sustained tourist spending are seen as key drivers. Higher tourism spending has helped offset lower arrivals linked to geopolitical tensions, providing further support to the external sector.

On inflation, BNM highlighted that elevated business costs have not fully passed through to consumers, contained by policy measures and limited wage spillovers. This reflects muted domestic demand despite strong headline growth. The MPC stressed vigilance over cost pressures and demand conditions.

Notably, the September statement omitted the word “appropriate” in describing the current OPR stance, signaling a shift toward hawkishness. Analysts expect BNM to hold rates steady through 2026 but see scope for a 25-basis-point hike in 2027, normalizing OPR to 3.00%. Bloomberg’s implied OPR path also points to one hike over the next year, reflecting stronger-than-expected GDP performance and easing external risks.

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