Carrefour Cuts 2026 Profit Targets as Riots and Curfews

French retailer Carrefour has lowered its full-year financial targets, blaming a wave of riots, looting and curfews in its home market that has damaged stores, forced closures and pushed up security costs just as the crucial year-end trading season begins, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

The group now expects adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be stable or only slightly higher than in 2025, a sharp step down from its earlier guidance of high single-digit growth. It also cut its expected improvement in recurring operating margin to between zero and 15 basis points, from 25 basis points previously, and now sees net free cash flow declining slightly rather than growing.

“Our Group is facing an unprecedented situation in France,” Chairman and Chief Executive Alexandre Bompard said in the company’s third-quarter sales statement, adding that the retailer’s strategic roadmap remained unchanged.

Carrefour Stores hit, costs rising

Chief Financial Officer Matthieu Malige told Reuters that around 50 Carrefour stores had been directly affected by the riots, while many more were shut pre-emptively, including on Sunday and Monday. He declined to say how many outlets had closed in total.

Malige put the direct cost at “several tens of millions of euros”, covering stolen and destroyed goods, damaged premises and equipment, and lost trading from closures. The company has also spent more on protective measures, including hiring outside security guards. He warned the impact would continue in the coming weeks, with some stores forced to close early because of curfews, and said customers faced deep uncertainty.

According to Reuters, the unrest is weighing on consumer confidence that was already fragile because of high fuel prices, and is cutting footfall. Carrefour also trimmed its 2026 capital expenditure budget to €1.6 billion from €1.7 billion, scaling back investment in France for the rest of the year.

Sales held up in the quarter

The downgrade came despite a steady third quarter. Group sales including VAT reached about €22.7 billion, with like-for-like growth of 2.3%, in line with the first half. Finimize noted the figure was slightly ahead of the 2.1% consensus compiled by management.

France, Carrefour’s largest market, posted like-for-like growth of 1.2% to €11.9 billion, helped by food sales and a fresh round of price cuts in August covering more than 500 products. Spain grew 2.1% and Brazil 1.4% on a like-for-like basis, while the group’s other markets rose 8.4%, lifted by Argentina. Food sales grew 2.7% across the group, while non-food slipped 1.1%.

Market commentators said the problem lies in profitability rather than demand. Newsquawk described the cut as a margin and earnings issue, noting that revenue still rose year on year, while Finimize said the new guidance shifts the debate for investors “from ‘margin expansion’ to ‘margin defense'”.

What’s next

Investors will be watching whether conditions in France normalise in time for the holiday period, with Black Friday promotions being prepared in the coming days, according to Reuters. Carrefour is also due to present its hypermarket strategy for France on November 17, and recently agreed to acquire Codifrance and extended the maturity of its €4 billion syndicated credit facility to November 2031.

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