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China’s economy grew 5.2% in 2023, slightly surpassing the official target, but the recovery faced challenges with a deepening property crisis, deflationary risks, and tepid demand, impacting the outlook for the current year. The anticipated strong post-COVID bounce waned due to weak consumer and business confidence, local government debts, and slowing global growth.
China Beige Book International stated, “The recovery from COVID — disappointing as it was — is over.” The government’s measures to support the economy showed limited impact, and some December indicators revealed a deepening property crisis. The GDP for October-December grew 5.2%, missing a 5.3% forecast, with quarter-on-quarter growth slowing to 1.0%.
Despite policy insiders expecting a similar growth target of around 5% for the current year, analysts express doubts about achieving it even with additional stimulus. NBS’ Kang Yi acknowledged the “hard-won” 2023 growth but highlighted the complex external environment and insufficient demand in 2024.
Stocks in Chi na and Chinese firms in Hong Kong faced declines after the disappointing data, prompting concerns about the need for more interest rate cuts and support measures. Kang mentioned the low government debt and inflation rate, emphasizing the ample room for policy adjustments.
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