Latin America’s Oil Growth Anchored by Argentina, Guyana and Brazil Despite Venezuelan Return

Latin America’s oil sector is entering 2026 with Argentina, Guyana and Brazil firmly positioned as the region’s growth leaders, even as Venezuela attempts a comeback. Analysts note that while reforms in Caracas, including lifted sanctions and changes to hydrocarbons law, have sparked renewed interest, major oil companies remain cautious. Legal uncertainties and weak institutional legitimacy continue to deter long‑term investment, leaving smaller traders and firms to explore short‑term opportunities.

Rystad Energy estimates flagship projects in Argentina, Guyana and Brazil will add more than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, keeping Venezuela sidelined until at least 2030. Brazil alone is forecast to exceed 4.2 million bpd, driven by pre‑salt developments and new floating production units. Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale is expected to boost investment from $9.4 billion in 2025 to nearly $11 billion this year, while Guyana and Suriname attract capital for offshore greenfield projects.

Oil Growth

Overall, Latin America’s oil production is projected to surpass 8.8 million bpd in 2026, consolidating its role as a key non‑OPEC+ supplier. Yet, the volume of conventional reserves entering production will be 45% smaller than last year, reflecting a focus on projects with guaranteed returns.

Venezuela may add 300,000 bpd in the short term, supported by traders securing heavy crude for US refiners. However, its extra‑heavy, emissions‑intensive barrels remain less attractive compared to resilient shale and offshore developments. Neighboring countries like Trinidad and Tobago and Colombia could see spillover effects, but the region’s future remains dictated by the “big three.”