Palm inventory hits record 3.5mil tonnes

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) has released the palm statistics for September. Palm inventory hit 3.5mil tonnes in September (August: 2.8mil tonnes) on the back of a strong CPO production and fall in exports.

The inventory of 3.5mil tonnes, which is the highest ever, was within Bloomberg consensus. On a brighter note, we expect FFB yields to weaken going forward after the bumper harvest in the past four months. “As such, we think that CPO production would decline in October, which would boost CPO prices. We maintain Overweight on the plantation sector,” says AmBank.

CPO production climbed by 16.5% MoM to 2.1mil tonnes in September. This was driven by Sabah, which recorded a 35% surge in output. In Johor, which is one of the main palm oil areas in Peninsular Malaysia, CPO output improved by 16.4% MoM to 336,906 tonnes in September.

Palm inventory

On a yearly basis, CPO production in Malaysia inched up by 1.9% to 14.8mil tonnes in 9M2026. AmBank thinks that Malaysia’s
CPO production would be 19.5mil to 20mil tonnes in 2026F, slightly lower than 20.3mil tonnes in 2025.

Exports sank in September. Palm exports fell by a further 12.1% MoM to 1.1mil tonnes in September after declining by 7.8% in the previous month. According to Intertek, palm shipments to the EU slumped by 47.1% to 193,622 tonnes in September while exports to India slipped by 2.7% to 255,980 tonnes. Palm shipments to China slid by 14.8% to 86,250 tonnes.

“We expect demand for palm oil to pick up in October as CPO prices have eased.”

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