China’s economy expanded 4.5% year on year in the July–September quarter, picking up from the second quarter’s three-year low and edging past market forecasts, investingLive reported, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Monday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected 4.4%, after growth of 4.3% in the April–June period.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, gross domestic product rose 1.2%, up from 0.9% in the previous three months and slightly above the 1.1% consensus. For the first nine months of 2026, the economy grew 4.6% from a year earlier, placing it at the bottom end of Beijing’s annual growth target of 4.5% to 5.0%, according to investingLive and Trading Economics.
Exports and factories carry the load
Trading Economics attributed the rebound to resilient exports, especially AI-related components, high-tech manufactured goods and electric vehicles, along with recent policy easing. China’s trade surplus widened more than expected in September and is on course to exceed last year’s record of US$1.2 trillion, investingLive noted.
Monthly figures released alongside the GDP data showed industrial output growing 5.5% year on year in September, up from 5.2% in August and its fastest pace in six months. Retail sales rose 1.1%, more than double the 0.5% forecast and the strongest reading since March, helped in part by the Golden Week holiday, according to Investing.com and Trading Economics. The surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to 5.2% from 5.3%.
Investment remains the weak link
The domestic investment picture stayed bleak. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–September from a year earlier, unchanged from the decline recorded for the first eight months and roughly in line with expectations. Property investment dropped 20.6%, while infrastructure investment slipped 4.2% despite government support measures, investingLive reported.
The NBS said key indicators had improved this year but cautioned that a volatile international environment and persistently weak domestic demand remain challenges, according to Trading Economics.
Beijing has rolled out a series of targeted measures in recent weeks, including expanded support for homebuyers, the allocation of 550 billion yuan in unused government debt quotas to local governments, broader loan interest subsidies for small private firms and consumers, and the use of an 800 billion yuan policy financing tool for infrastructure, investingLive said.
Muted market response
Mainland stocks edged lower after the release, with the CSI 300 down 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite off 0.3% in intraday trade, while the yuan firmed slightly against the US dollar, Investing.com reported. investingLive described the data as a modest beat across the board that may support the Australian and New Zealand dollars, but said the reduced odds of large-scale stimulus could cap enthusiasm for Chinese equities.
What’s next
Attention now turns to the monthly loan prime rate decision due on Tuesday, where the firmer data has lowered expectations of a cut. With nine-month growth hovering at the floor of the official target, analysts will be watching whether exports can keep offsetting weak consumption and the prolonged property downturn through the final quarter. Trading Economics projects fourth-quarter growth of about 4.6%.
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