EM Asia Growth to Slow in 2025 Amid U.S. Tariff Risks, Says IIF
The International Institute of Finance (IIF) forecasts a slowdown in Emerging Markets (EM) Asia’s GDP growth to 4.8% in 2025 from 5.1% in 2024, according to its Global and APAC Growth and Capital Flows Outlook For 2025. China and India are expected to see growth decelerate to 4.7% and 6.2%, respectively. U.S. tariffs, starting at a minimum of 10%, pose significant risks, particularly for Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. FDI inflows to EM Asia (excluding China) may drop to $90 billion. The IIF anticipates monetary easing and fiscal measures to counter tariff-induced disinflation and dampened export demand.
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