The mandatory EPF contribution: Impact on corporate earnings appears minimal

Analysts here presents a solid initial take on the EPF amendment’s impact on corporate earnings and the broader market. Here are a few refinements and additional points to consider:

Key Takeaways: The mandatory EPF contribution

The mandatory EPF contribution for foreign workers is set at 2% for both employers and employees, significantly lower than the 11%-13% contribution required for local workers.

Implementation is expected by 4QCY25, allowing businesses ample time to adjust.

The impact on corporate earnings appears minimal, with a worst-case scenario of -0.9% reduction in CY25 earnings forecast, and an even smaller impact (-0.2%) if phased in 4QCY25.

Sectors employing large numbers of foreign workers—construction, plantations, gloves, etc.—are unlikely to face significant financial strain.

Market Strategy & View

No immediate need to revise earnings forecasts, especially given the recently concluded 4QCY24 earnings season.

Potential reassessment of equity valuations given the broader macroeconomic risks, such as foreign fund outflows and the US tariff threats.

Defensive positioning remains key amid heightened volatility—favoring banking, REITs, utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples.

Final Thoughts

While this policy change adds a minor cost burden, it is unlikely to disrupt corporate earnings or major sectors. The bigger concern remains broader market uncertainties, particularly the direction of US trade policies and regional fund flows. Holding a defensive stance remains prudent until market conditions stabilize.

• Source: MIDF

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