Putin plays the long game, and BRICS is his insurance policy. Aligning too closely with the U.S. under Trump would be risky because:
1. The U.S. Political Cycle is Unstable – Trump may only be in power for four years. If a Democrat wins in 2028, Russia would face renewed hostility. BRICS ensures Russia has alternative economic and political alliances.
2. NATO is the Bigger Threat – Putin’s main goal is to weaken NATO, not just counterbalance the U.S. He needs China, India, and other BRICS nations to maintain a multipolar world order.
3. Sanctions Protection – BRICS provides Russia with trade partners outside of the Western banking system, reducing the impact of sanctions.
4. China is Still Useful – Even if Russia doesn’t fully trust China, they share a common goal: resisting U.S. dominance. Russia won’t abandon BRICS unless it has an even stronger alternative, which the U.S. can’t guarantee.
BRICS will survive, but it may evolve – Expect Russia to balance its relationship with China while keeping BRICS intact.
• Putin won’t fully commit to Trump’s vision – He may cooperate but won’t sacrifice BRICS just to align with the West.
• If Trump loses in 2028, Russia will be glad it kept BRICS strong – It will help Russia weather renewed U.S. pressure.
So while Trump and Musk may hope for a Russia-U.S. alliance to weaken China, Putin has bigger priorities. The real game is NATO vs. Russia, not just U.S. vs. China.
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