Putin plays the long game, and BRICS is his insurance policy. Aligning too closely with the U.S. under Trump would be risky because:
Bricks divide
1. The U.S. Political Cycle is Unstable – Trump may only be in power for four years. If a Democrat wins in 2028, Russia would face renewed hostility. BRICS ensures Russia has alternative economic and political alliances.
2. NATO is the Bigger Threat – Putin’s main goal is to weaken NATO, not just counterbalance the U.S. He needs China, India, and other BRICS nations to maintain a multipolar world order.
3. Sanctions Protection – BRICS provides Russia with trade partners outside of the Western banking system, reducing the impact of sanctions.
4. China is Still Useful – Even if Russia doesn’t fully trust China, they share a common goal: resisting U.S. dominance. Russia won’t abandon BRICS unless it has an even stronger alternative, which the U.S. can’t guarantee.
What This Means for the Future
BRICS will survive, but it may evolve – Expect Russia to balance its relationship with China while keeping BRICS intact.
• Putin won’t fully commit to Trump’s vision – He may cooperate but won’t sacrifice BRICS just to align with the West.
• If Trump loses in 2028, Russia will be glad it kept BRICS strong – It will help Russia weather renewed U.S. pressure.
So while Trump and Musk may hope for a Russia-U.S. alliance to weaken China, Putin has bigger priorities. The real game is NATO vs. Russia, not just U.S. vs. China.
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