US Jobless Claims Rise as Labour Market Shows Clear Signs of Cooling

US jobless claims rose to 232,000 in the week ended 18 October, signalling further softening in the labour market. The figure, based on Labor Department data, remained above the averages recorded since late 2Q 2025, reflecting mounting job risks following the federal government shutdown on 1 October. Outstanding unemployment claims also increased, reaching 2.0 million on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, compared with 1.9 million in the previous week. This marks the highest level since 2021 and aligns with broader evidence of cooling labour demand.

US Jobless Claims

Additional labour indicators reinforced the weakening trend. Private employers cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks to 1 November, a moderation from the -11,300 previously reported. High-profile layoff announcements from major companies including Amazon and Target added to concerns over softer labour conditions.

The labour-market downturn was a key factor behind the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in October, with markets expecting another 25bps reduction in December.

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