Brent Oil Prices Surge: Rystad warns $135-risk

Brent crude spiked to $116.50 at market open before retreating to $104.50 on news of G7 nations releasing barrels, marking a near 45% surge since the conflict began.

Rystad Energy’s Vice President of Oil Markets, Janiv Shah, warned that Brent could climb to $135 per barrel if disruptions persist for four months.

Brent Oil Prices

He noted that supply is being choked off by drone strikes, while Middle Eastern producers are forced to shut in production due to storage constraints. Russian supply remains a wildcard, with rerouting to India complicating Western sanctions.

Rystad outlined two plausible scenarios: a two-month war, where Brent peaks above $110 in April before easing to $70 by year-end, averaging $87 in 2026; or a four-month war, with prices hitting $135 in May before settling at $85, averaging $100 in 2026. Shah emphasized that national energy security has overtaken profit margins as the crisis deepens.

— businessnews.com.my / Rystad Energy

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