Chinese exports fall more than feared in March

China’s exports plunged by -7.5%yoy in Mar-24, ending 4-consecutive months of expansion and missed market expectations of -3.0%yoy.

Exports to the US dipped by -15.9%yoy (Feb-24: +13.4%yoy) while to the EU tumbled by -14.9%yoy (Feb-24: +5.1%yoy). Exports to ASEAN fell by -6.3%yoy, marking 2 straight months of contraction.

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However, outbound shipments to Malaysia rebounded by +1.9%yoy (Feb-24: -13.0%yoy) but inbound shipment from Malaysia reduced by -3.5%yoy, the first decline in 3 months.

Chinese exports – Impacts

Overall imports declined by -1.9%yoy (market estimate: +1.2%yoy), falling for the second consecutive month. Against the previous month, both exports and imports expanded strongly by +27.0%mom and +22.5%mom, respectively.

Despite the year-on-year decline, the month-on-month performance continued to indicate positive momentum for China’s external trade performance.

In addition, business optimism especially among manufacturers continued on improving trend as reflected by the Caixin (Mar-24: 51.1) and NBS (Mar-24: 50.8) Manufacturing PMI figures, both at 1-year highs.

Nevertheless, escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may impose downside risks to China’s economic recovery indirectly from potential spike in commodity prices and slowdown of global demand. 

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