Economics: April 2026 CPI – Transport Inflation Rose Further

Malaysia’s headline CPI rose to +1.9% YoY in April from +1.7% in March, while core CPI eased to +2.0% YoY from +2.1% and inflation excluding fuels moderated to +1.7% from +1.8%.

On a MoM basis, CPI increased +0.4% in April from +0.3% previously, indicating slightly stronger sequential price momentum at the start of 2Q26.

Analysts at PublicInvest believe inflation remains contained in general and they maintain their CPI forecast at +2.4% YoY and keep their OPR call at 2.75% through 2026.

Transport Inflation

“Even so, we think the broader inflation backdrop remains contained, with the latest increase still looking more like selective adjustments than the start of a wider demand-driven price build-up,” says PIB.

“We maintain our 2026 CPI forecast at +2.4% YoY and keep our OPR call at 2.75% through 2026. We think inflation remains a cost-push rather than demand-led story, although the outlook has become less benign as the current shock broadens beyond oil into wider input and supply-chain costs.”

The analysts also says targeted fuel support should still cushion the direct household hit, but the risk is that broader pass-through becomes more visible in 2H26. That should keep BNM on hold for now, unless inflation persistence broadens more materially.

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