European Gas Prices: Warmer weather in Europe has pushed pipeline gas prices for January down by 7% to $13.8 per MMBtu, reducing demand and easing supply pressure.
LNG Imports
Europe has imported 3.2 Mt of LNG so far in 2025, with 2 Mt sourced from the US. Favorable arbitrage economics are expected to maintain this trend of US LNG cargoes flowing into Europe.
Norwegian Supply Impact: Norway’s Snohvit facility has extended its downtime by 10 days to 19 January, potentially directing more LNG shipments into Europe.
Asian LNG Market
• Asian spot LNG prices for February delivery fell 3% to $14.4 per MMBtu on 8 January, with further declines expected to $14.3.
• Asia remains well-supplied with LNG, leading buyers to optimize procurement at the lower end of the price curve.
• December 2024 spot prices averaged $13.4 per MMBtu, down 1% week-on-week.
Market Dynamics:
• January 2025 financial derivatives saw a 1% week-on-week decline, settling at $13.8 per MMBtu.
• Dutch TTF front-month prices rose 1.8% to $12.9 per MMBtu in October due to Norwegian maintenance disruptions.
Outlook
Warmer weather in Europe, sufficient Asian LNG supply, and favorable arbitrage economics for US LNG exports are shaping market flows, keeping prices relatively stable and competitive. – Source Rystad
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