Rystad Energy’s Vice President Emily McClain warns of a turbulent year for natural gas and LNG markets due to geopolitical and trade factors.
US-Canada Trade Tensions: A 10% tariff on Canadian natural gas could disrupt Midwest and Pacific supply chains, raise prices, and force Canadian producers to sell at lower prices, potentially harming smaller companies and delaying investments.
US-China Trade War: China is expected to retaliate against US tariffs by reducing LNG imports, potentially shifting trade flows toward Australia and Qatar.
European Market Trends: With TTF prices above $15/MMBtu, Europe is rapidly drawing from storage while securing spot cargoes. Forward curves suggest sustained high prices through summer as the EU works to meet storage targets.
Asian Demand Factors: Heat waves or a recovery in Chinese industrial demand could intensify competition for LNG.
Future Supply and Price Outlook: An estimated 14.7 million tonnes of additional supply from North America and Africa in 2025 could ease prices by year-end.
Trump’s Trade Policies: US President Donald Trump’s tariff moves, including 15% Chinese tariffs on US LNG, signal a new phase in the US-China trade war. His stance on Russia remains uncertain but could further impact global gas markets.
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