OPEC Projects Global Oil Demand Surge to 123 Million Barrels per Day by 2050 Amid Economic and Policy Shifts

Vienna, August 21, 2025 – In its newly released World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2025, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts robust growth in global oil demand, driven by population expansion, economic development in non-OECD regions, and evolving energy policies. Despite uncertainties in the global economy and energy landscape, oil is expected to remain the dominant fuel source, with demand rising from 103.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to nearly 123 mb/d by 2050.

The report highlights a 23% increase in total primary energy demand over the period, reaching 378 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) by 2050. Non-OECD countries, particularly India, Other Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, will account for nearly all growth, adding 70 mboe/d. Oil and natural gas will maintain a combined share above 50% in the energy mix, while renewables like wind and solar surge by 40.5 mboe/d, capturing 13.5% by 2050. Coal demand, however, is projected to decline by 30.4 mboe/d due to policy pressures.

Oil Demand

Key drivers include a global population boom to 9.7 billion by 2050, with urbanization rates climbing to 68% and the economy doubling to $358 trillion (2021 PPP). Electricity demand is set to jump over 80%, from 31,500 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024 to 57,500 TWh, fueled by residential, industrial, and data center needs in developing Asia.

On the demand side, non-OECD regions lead with 27.7 mb/d growth to 85.7 mb/d by 2050, while OECD demand falls 8.5 mb/d to 37.2 mb/d. India alone adds 8.2 mb/d, surpassing China (1.8 mb/d). Road transportation, petrochemicals, and aviation sectors dominate, contributing 5.3 mb/d, 4.7 mb/d, and 4.2 mb/d respectively. The global vehicle fleet expands to 2.9 billion, with electric vehicles (EVs) rising sharply, though internal combustion engines still hold 72% share.

Supply projections show non-DoC (Declaration of Cooperation) liquids peaking at 60 mb/d in the mid-2030s before plateauing, led by U.S. tight oil at 16.5 mb/d in 2030. DoC producers fill the gap, growing from 49.1 mb/d to 64.1 mb/d by 2050, boosting their market share to 52%. Meeting this requires $18.2 trillion in cumulative investments by 2050—$14.9 trillion upstream, $2 trillion downstream, and $1.3 trillion midstream—to counter field declines and ensure stability.

Refining capacity adds 19.5 mb/d by 2050, mostly in Asia-Pacific (3.2 mb/d medium-term), Africa, and the Middle East, with markets tightening post-2027. Global oil trade rises 25% to 67.5 mb/d, dominated by Middle East exports to Asia-Pacific (23.5 mb/d by 2050).

Alternative scenarios underscore uncertainties: A “Technology-Driven” path sees demand drop to under 107 mb/d by 2050 via rapid tech adoption, while “Equitable Growth” pushes it to 130 mb/d with faster development in emerging economies.

OPEC emphasizes the need for balanced policies addressing energy security, affordability, and emissions, warning that investment shortfalls could jeopardize market stability. The report, extending to 2050 for the first time, includes a focus on Brazil’s energy sector and is available digitally via the OPEC WOO App.

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