US-Iran Peace Deal Signals Immediate Price Impact, Delayed Oil Flow Recovery

Reports of a US-Iran peace deal are gaining traction, with Pakistan’s foreign ministry expecting resolution “very soon” and Washington anticipating an Iranian response within 48 hours. Futures markets are already reacting, with oil prices declining on the prospect of a deal. However, Rystad Energy cautions that physical oil flows will take longer to normalize.

US-Iran Peace Deal

Chief Oil Analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu noted that even under an optimistic scenario of a 30-day phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, meaningful volume recovery would not occur until June, with port arrivals lagging by four to six weeks. Transit insurance, vessel access, and commercial confidence require time to rebuild.

The proposed framework includes a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and gradual reopening of Hormuz. Rystad estimates physical flows returning to 80–90% of pre-disruption levels only by July. Futures may move instantly, but structural shipping delays mean supply normalization lags significantly.

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