X erupts: India vs. ASEAN – Who will replace China’s manufacturing might?

In the shadow of the escalating US-China trade war, which has disrupted global supply chains since 2018, discussions about diversifying manufacturing away from China have intensified. Tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical tensions have prompted companies to seek alternatives, often referred to as the “China Plus One” strategy. This approach aims to reduce reliance on Chinese production by relocating to other Asian nations.

Amid this backdrop, a recent video clip of CNN host Fareed Zakaria sparked a fiery debate on X (formerly Twitter). Zakaria asserted that India is the sole country with the scale to supplant China in producing consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, and other low-margin goods at massive volumes, emphasizing that neither the US nor Europe could fill this void.

Zakaria underlined India’s importance in the future of global manufacturing. “There is only one country in the world that has the scale to replace China,” he stated. “If you want to make massive amounts of consumer electronics or iPhones, only India has the scale to do that. If you want to make massive amounts of pharmaceuticals, only India has the ability to do that.” 

Manufacturing might in question?

Posted by user Shashank Mattoo on November 11, 2025, the clip quickly garnered over 388,000 views. However, it drew sharp rebuttals, particularly from Zhao DaShuai, whose reply on November 12 amassed 187,000 views.

Zhao argued that the 700 million people in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries are far better positioned to absorb shifting manufacturing capacity. He highlighted Southeast Asians’ diligence, superior infrastructure, human capital, and geographic proximity to China’s ecosystem.

Zhao also noted policy support through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), from which India withdrew in 2019. “No one is replacing China,” he concluded, pointing out that even ASEAN expansions would still depend on Chinese parts and firms.

The thread exploded with user input, broadening the discourse. Sabad Emsid suggested China consider Bangladesh, a distinct neighbor already emerging as a textile hub with high female labor participation—the highest in the region.

Zhao concurred, noting Chinese investments there but stressing the need for better infrastructure. Other commenters piled on: Omer criticized India’s 43-year struggle with the fourth-generation Tejas jet, contrasting it with China’s sixth-generation advancements. Will S dismissed India outright, prioritizing Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia for manufacturing suitability, while deeming the Philippines, Cambodia, and Myanmar inadequate.

ASEAN in the picture

Endorphin echoed this, calling ASEAN “one of the most powerful blocs,” encompassing Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Singapore. Nutzloser Esser added a Western perspective, claiming the West is eyeing Southeast Asia to deflate China’s economic bubble, albeit at a cost.

This online skirmish mirrors real-world trends. As per reports, firms are increasingly turning to Vietnam and India for alternatives amid US-China rifts, though ASEAN has captured more inflows, acting as a conduit for Chinese goods to bypass tariffs.

A Quora discussion questions why India lags behind ASEAN nations like Vietnam in positioning itself. India’s trade dependence on China creates vulnerabilities, and tensions with ASEAN over tariffs have widened the gap. A Warsaw debate video even argues neither India nor Asia combined can fully replace China.

Visualizing the shift:

aseanexchanges.org

scmp.com

linkedin.com

As the trade war evolves—evidenced by recent US-India negotiations and a temporary Trump-Xi ceasefire—the debate underscores a key truth: replacing China’s manufacturing dominance is complex, with ASEAN and Bangladesh emerging as frontrunners, while India’s potential remains contested.

Business News