US growth forecast sees IMF downgrade

The IMF has downgraded its 2025 US growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.7%, citing increased recession risks at 40% due to President Trump’s tariff policies, which could fuel inflation and global economic slowdown.

The Financial Times reports that tariffs may raise US consumer prices by 3% this year, while global trade tensions threaten financial instability. A Reuters poll echoes concerns, noting heightened global recession risks as US trade policies dampen business sentiment. The World Economic Forum warns that global fragmentation could cut GDP by up to $5.7 trillion, surpassing the 2008 crisis.

Key quotes: IMF on US downturn

• “The major risk in front of us is that there could be further escalation in tariffs and trade tensions,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
• “The economic costs of global fragmentation could eclipse the 2008 financial crisis,” World Economic Forum research.

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