Amid ceasefire uncertainty, LNG prices still reflect optimism

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets showed mixed trends over the past week, as easing prices contrasted with persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Qatar has begun mobilising personnel to restart production at its Ras Laffan LNG complex following a two-week ceasefire announced on 8 April, offering potential supply relief.

However, uncertainty remains elevated after peace talks between the United States and Iran collapsed, casting doubt over the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route. Analysts note that while diplomatic engagement has temporarily calmed markets, underlying risks continue to influence sentiment.

LNG prices

According to Rystad Energy, Asian LNG prices for June delivery fell 14% week-on-week to $16.5 per MMBtu, reflecting improved supply expectations from projects such as LNG Canada and recovering Australian output. Meanwhile, European gas prices also declined, with the TTF benchmark dropping to $14.3 per MMBtu amid strong supply and weak demand driven by warmer weather.

Despite the recent correction, analysts warn that price declines may be premature if disruptions in the Middle East persist. Future LNG price movements are expected to closely track oil prices, particularly in price-sensitive Asian markets reliant on fuel switching.

Business News