China’s Steel Exports on Track for Record High Despite Rising Trade Barriers

BEIJING – China’s steel exports are expected to reach record levels this year, defying earlier predictions that escalating trade barriers would dampen shipments. According to forecasts from 11 analysts, exports are projected to grow 4% to 9%, hitting between 115 million and 120 million metric tons in 2024. Earlier in the year, the same analysts had anticipated a decline.

Steel exports breaks trade barriers

With domestic demand slumping after the collapse of China’s property market, steelmakers are aggressively seeking overseas buyers. But the surge in exports risks intensifying global protectionism, with 54 new tariffs and trade measures already imposed against Chinese steel this year alone. The EU is exploring fresh curbs, while Mexico recently announced higher tariffs on Chinese imports, including steel.

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China’s steel exports, last peaking in 2015, are rising again as demand at home weakens. Steelmakers like Baosteel are pivoting to emerging markets in the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa, where trade barriers are lower, helping sustain record export levels.