Kenanga Upgrades Distributive Trade Growth Forecast to 5.7% for 2025 on Strong Momentum

Kuala Lumpur, December 14 — Kenanga Research has revised Malaysia’s distributive trade growth projection for 2025 upwards to 5.7 per cent from 5.0 per cent, driven by stronger-than-expected sales momentum and supportive factors ahead.

The sector recorded average year-on-year growth of 5.3 per cent in the first 10 months of 2025, surpassing initial targets. October sales surged 7.2 per cent year-on-year to a record RM160.9 billion, the highest since March 2023, led by wholesale trade (7.3 per cent) and motor vehicles (8.2 per cent).

Distributive Trade Growth

Near-term resilience is expected from festive spending, rising tourist arrivals, Visit Malaysia 2026 initiatives and government cash aid like Sumbangan Asas Rahmah. Growth is forecast to accelerate to 6.1 per cent in 2026.

Kenanga also upgraded fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth to 5.0 per cent and full-year to 4.8 per cent, though caution prevails for 2026 amid global uncertainties.