OPEC+ may raise output if US supply disruptions deepen- Photo by Maahid Photos on Pexels.com
Rystad Energy’s latest market update, provided by Mukesh Sahdev, Global Head of Commodity Markets – Oil, highlights OPEC+’s unexpected decision to accelerate crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting May 2025, as confirmed in a meeting of eight key producers: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
This increase, triple the market’s pre-meeting expectation of 135,000 bpd, fast-tracks the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts, originally set to phase out gradually over 18 months. Rystad views this as an opportunistic move to leverage stagnant non-OPEC production, predicting a short-lived price dip below $70 due to summer demand and geopolitical risks.
The decision reflects OPEC+’s confidence in market absorption capacity, though it navigates uncertainties like U.S. sanctions, tariffs, and demand fluctuations, aiming to maintain compliance and avoid a surplus.
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