Oil Market Turning Oversupplied as OPEC+ Output Rises: Experts

LONDON, Oct 6 — Global oil markets are shifting decisively from tightness to surplus as OPEC+ production increases and demand softens, according to Rystad Energy. Senior vice president Susan Bell said the market has “flipped from tight to tepid,” with rising output testing price support and threatening to drag crude below $50 per barrel.

Oil Market Turning Oversupplied

In the fourth quarter of 2025, global liquids balances are expected to show a surplus of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with near balance in the previous quarter. OPEC+ will add roughly 1 million bpd of production, while non-OPEC+ supply from the US, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina will grow by nearly 450,000 bpd. Meanwhile, demand is projected to fall by 230,000 bpd amid weaker transport fuel consumption in OECD countries.

Rystad said the oversupply will persist into 2026, with liquids supply rising by around 2.5 million bpd against demand growth of under 1 million bpd. The surplus, it added, will build inventories and reduce disruption risks. Bell warned that the combination of strong supply and sluggish demand “marks a structural shift,” keeping global crude prices under sustained downward pressure. — Rystad Energy

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