OPEC+ to Pause Output Hikes in Early 2026 as Supply Risks Loom

KUALA LUMPUR: OPEC+ will pause further oil output increases in the first quarter of 2026 to stabilise prices and prevent a supply glut, said MBSB Research, which maintained its Positive stance on the oil and gas sector.

The group had earlier agreed to raise production in December by 137,000 barrels per day, in line with increases in October and November. Since April 2025, OPEC+ has lifted its output targets by 2.9 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 2.7% of global oil supply.

Output Hikes

MBSB said the decision to halt further hikes reflects a proactive move to preserve market balance, as the first quarter typically sees weaker prices. It warned, however, that downside risks persist due to an anticipated supply surplus in 2026, with global output expected to rise by another 2.4 million barrels per day.

Demand growth is forecast to remain modest at 0.7 million barrels per day next year, with economic slowdowns in China and India weighing on consumption. Nonetheless, factors such as China’s stockpiling, Russian export curbs, and refinery closures may support prices. MBSB expects Brent crude to trade between USD60 and USD65 per barrel in 2026.

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