Russian Crude Exports Exceed Targets in October, OPEC+ Compliance Challenged

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According to initial estimates from Rystad Energy, Russian crude oil exports in October exceeded the country’s 300,000-barrels-per-day (bpd) voluntary export cut target. Seaborne exports, excluding CPC and KEBCO crude grades, reached 3.54 million bpd, surpassing the target by approximately 300,000 bpd. When factoring in the seasonal rise in pipeline exports in October, total exports are preliminarily estimated to have exceeded the target by about 400,000 bpd.

Russia may attribute its non-compliance with OPEC+ cuts to its domestic fuel crisis, which led to a temporary ban on diesel and gasoline exports and a decrease in oil product exports. The structural loss of refined product exports is estimated at 300,000 bpd, potentially providing a compelling argument for Russia.

Crude Exports

Further recovery of refinery operations in November and December is expected to reduce crude exports to target levels. OPEC+ has previously made allowances for countries facing special circumstances, and if Russian exports gradually align with the targets in the coming weeks, it is less likely that the October breach of commitments will lead to disputes with Saudi Arabia, the leading member of OPEC+.

Key points from the analysis include a temporary decline in seaborne exports at the end of October and a monthly average of 3.54 million bpd, which increased by 320,000 bpd compared to September 2023. It is anticipated that the ongoing recovery of refinery operations will bring Russian crude exports back to target levels in the near future.