Rystad Energy CEO Forecasts Energy Abundance and Low Prices in 2026

Rystad Energy Founder & CEO Jarand Rystad predicts a year of upstream energy oversupply in 2026, leading to depressed primary energy prices amid geopolitical volatility and a slower energy transition. Fossil fuels will remain dominant, with economics driving decisions over policies. Demand growth will favor renewables in power, while bottlenecks downstream create opportunities in storage and refining. Deeper 2026 price drops could spark rebounds in 2027-2028, making it ideal for acquisitions and projects.

Energy Abundance

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Major Predictions for 2026:

• Upstream abundance but downstream bottlenecks, resulting in low primary energy prices with healthy margins in refining, storage, and some carriers.
• Primary energy consumption growth of ~2,500 TWh; useful energy growth ~1,550 TWh (450 TWh molecules, 900 TWh electrons, 200 TWh heat).
• Molecular energy growth: ~60% gas, 20% oil (mostly for materials), 20% biomass.
• All electron growth from renewables; gas generation up 200 TWh, offset by coal/oil declines.
• Oil oversupply up to 3.2 million bpd if OPEC+ unwinds cuts, pressuring prices unless cuts extended.
• Gas oversupply from new LNG, absorbed via coal-to-gas switching.
• Steep wind/solar growth causing mid-day power oversupply; battery storage as fastest-growing sector.
• Hybrid energy mix more visible, with volatile power prices and steady electrification.
• Favorable year for M&A, greenfield projects, and investments by cash-rich players.