US Abduction of Maduro Sparks Limited Near-Term Oil Disruption, Long-Term Uncertainty

In a dramatic escalation, US forces conducted airstrikes on Venezuela over the weekend, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would temporarily “run” the country to ensure a safe transition, with American oil firms poised to help refurbish the nation’s degraded infrastructure.

Venezuela boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves at around 303 billion barrels, yet its production has plummeted to roughly 800,000-1 million barrels per day—far below powerhouses like Saudi Arabia (10 million bpd) and the US (13.8 million bpd)—due to years of sanctions, underinvestment, and mismanagement.

Oil Disruption

Analysts from Public Investment Bank maintain a neutral outlook on the oil & gas sector, predicting limited near-term market disruption. Existing US sanctions since 2017 have already curtailed Venezuela’s exports and investment, and its output represents less than 1% of global supply, unlikely to trigger a major shock.

However, long-term risks loom large. Details on revitalisation plans, funding, and political stability remain unclear. Increased US-led investment could boost output significantly—potentially to 1.3-2.5 million bpd in the coming years—benefiting regional suppliers but pressuring global prices downward and curbing upstream spending by majors.

Brent crude is forecast to average $60 per barrel in 2026 amid these uncertainties.

The report also highlights technical buys on Malaysian stocks Aemulus Holdings (target RM0.215) and Cabnet Holdings (target RM0.325), signaling potential trend reversals.

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