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Global debt rose by some $1.3 trillion to a new record high of $315 trillion in Q1 2024. Moreover, after three consecutive quarters of decline, the global debt-to-GDP resumed its upward trajectory in Q1 2024.
Emerging market debt topped $105 trillion in Q1 2024, with the largest increases coming from China, India, and Mexico.
Across mature markets, debt rose most quickly in the U.S. and Japan; that said, a weaker yen should support debt dynamics for the Japanese government and corporates.
Given “sticky” U.S. inflation and an expected delay to Fed rate cuts, a USD rally—with the ECB beginning to ease—could once again bring government debt strains to the fore, particularly for developing countries.
Of note: rising trade frictions and deeper geoeconomic fragmentation could diminish the external debt servicing capacity of emerging markets. – IIF
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