Global Energy Scenarios 2025: The next energy era

The global energy system is witnessing the next greatest transition, standing on the cusp of a new energy era championed by clean electricity and the increased adoption of electrification across the board. Rystad Energy is pleased to announce the release of its flagship annual report, Global Energy Scenarios (GES) 2025, which provides in-depth degree scenarios towards 2100 and a newly developed nationally determined contribution (NDC) scenario to 2035. Clean electricity and electrification are expanding faster than any shift in modern history, with energy sources of the next era growing from around 9% in 2015 to more than 14% this year as share of primary energy.  

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The next energy era

While nations grapple with the dual challenge of addressing climate change and strengthening energy security, renewables are expanding faster than any previous energy technology, with total wind and solar capacity additions for 2024–2025 set to exceed 700 gigawatts (GW). Because of this, our research indicates that a 1.9-degree Celsius trajectory – referring to an average global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels – is more likely towards 2040, as a hybrid energy ecosystem is now in place.

As these scenarios play out, the transformation of the global energy system requires three clear steps:

Task 1: Clean up and grow the power sector

Cleaning up and expanding the power sector plays a dominant role in reducing emissions through 2050. Our analysis indicates that achieving a global warming scenario more ambitious than 1.9 degrees will require at least 90% of the identified opportunities for a reduction in emissions to be realized.

Task 2: Electrify almost everything

Electrification becomes particularly impactful in pathways that limit warming at or below 1.6 degrees. The greatest contribution comes from the adoption of electric vehicles (EV), alongside widespread energy efficiency improvements across buildings, industry and transport.

Task 3: Address residual emissions

Addressing residual fossil fuel use through CO2 capture or substitution with low-carbon fuels contributes little to a net reduction in emissions before mid-century in pathways exceeding the 2.2-degree scenario. This limited impact reflects its later-stage deployment and higher costs.

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