AMRO Cuts ASEAN+3 Growth Forecast Amid Rising US Tariff Risks, Urges Stronger Regional Integration

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised its regional growth forecast downward amid rising global uncertainties, including new US tariffs. In its July 2025 update, AMRO highlights both challenges and resilience across ASEAN+3, calling for deeper regional integration to navigate escalating trade tensions and external economic risks

1. Asean Economic Growth Forecast

Brief: AMRO revised ASEAN+3 growth down to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. Reason: Reflects impact of newly announced US tariff measures not considered in April projections (4.2% for 2025, 4.1% for 2026).

2. Regional Resilience

Brief: The region is entering this uncertain period from a position of strength. Insight: Policymakers in the region have acted early to cushion shocks, and still have policy space for further support.

3. Inflation & Financial Markets

Brief: Inflation is moderating despite oil price spikes from Middle East tensions. Markets: Regional currencies appreciated against the USD, showing market confidence despite US policy uncertainties.

4. Risk Factors

Brief: US tariffs remain the most pressing risk, along with potential expansion to other goods. Other risks: Geopolitical tensions Slowdowns in US/Europe High US interest rates affecting global financial conditions

5. Policy Recommendation

Brief: AMRO urges deeper regional integration amid global fragmentation. Quote: “Deeper cooperation, openness, and rules-based multilateralism” can help ASEAN+3 withstand shocks and grow.

6. About AMRO

Brief: AMRO supports macroeconomic stability in ASEAN+3 (ASEAN + China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea). Functions: Macroeconomic surveillance Support for financial arrangements Technical assistance Regional knowledge-sharing hub

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