The U.S. labor market staged its strongest rebound in over a year, with nonfarm payrolls rising by +178K in March, reversing February’s contraction. Gains were concentrated in healthcare (+76K), construction (+26K), transportation (+21K), and manufacturing (+15K), while federal government (–18K) and financial activities (–15K) shed jobs. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, defying expectations, though labor force participation slipped below 62%—a post-pandemic low.
US Jobs
Wage growth moderated to +3.5%yoy, the weakest since May 2021, signaling easing pressures. Despite the upbeat headline, risks loom from the escalating Iran conflict, which threatens supply chains and global stability. The Federal Reserve is likely to pause further easing, adopting a cautious stance amid heightened uncertainty. March’s data underscores resilience but also fragility, as geopolitical tensions could quickly erode momentum. The labor market’s strength offers temporary relief, yet the outlook remains clouded by external shocks and policy hesitation.
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